If you’ve already dreamed about opening an unexpected holiday card and finding cold, hard cash instead of peppermint bark — congratulations: tax season might just deliver that flutter of joy this spring.
The 2026 filing season officially kicks off Jan. 26, when the Internal Revenue Service begins accepting 2025 tax returns for individuals, and many taxpayers are bracing for what officials describe as a potentially generous refund year. For millions of households, changes to federal tax law and a quirky quirk of timing could leave them holding larger checks than they’re used to — and for others, the size of that check depends on who they are, how they live and how much tax they already paid.
So who’s most likely to see a bigger refund this year? Let’s break it down — with a little sparkle and a lot of money sense.
Why Big Refunds Could Happen in 2026
Some people treat their tax refund like a surprise windfall — a once‑a‑year appearance that feels almost romantic in its unexpected sweetness. In 2026, a few factors may add extra layers to that feeling.
For starters, several significant changes to the tax code that take effect this year were signed into law in mid‑2025 but went into effect retroactively for the entire 2025 tax year. That means even though many taxpayers’ employers didn’t adjust their paycheck withholding to reflect the new law, the benefits still apply when those taxpayers sit down to file in early 2026. As a result, many Americans may discover they overpaid on taxes throughout the year — and the IRS has to send that excess back as a refund.
In plain terms? It’s like wearing snug shoes all day and suddenly realizing you don’t have to.
Add to that certain expanded deductions and increased credit limits, and many filers find themselves in a better position when tallying up their 2025 return.
Middle‑Class Households — Big Chances for Big Refunds
For many middle‑income earners, this tax season could feel like getting your favorite latte on the house. Workers and families with incomes in the roughly middle range — think households earning comfortably but not wildly high salaries — are widely expected to benefit from the combination of retroactive tax law changes and unchanged withholding. That’s because the improvements to the tax code affect a broad swath of deductions and credits most commonly claimed by households in this group, from the standard deduction to state and local tax provisions.
When tax withholding doesn’t reflect the lowered liability many now have, the result is simple: you paid more during the year than you actually owed. And come spring, that difference is mailed — or deposited — back into your bank account.
Homeowners and High‑Tax State Residents
If you’re a homeowner, especially in a state where property taxes and income taxes can feel like heavy snuggle blankets of expense, this year’s refund picture could look extra cozy.
A higher cap on the state and local tax deduction — temporarily increased under the new law — lets more filers deduct larger amounts of state and local taxes on their federal return than was allowed previously. For homeowners who itemize, that means a smaller federal tax bill and a larger refund.
While it may not be the romantic stuff of candlelight dinners, it is the kind of relief that can make winter feel warmer in states where taxes bite harder than the cold.
Parents and Families With Kids
Families with qualifying children are also likely to have refund reasons to smile. The child tax credit in recent years expanded to offer a dollar‑for‑dollar reduction in taxes owed and a higher refundable component for eligible taxpayers.
In 2026, that credit is still elevated, according to research from CNBC, compared with its amount just a few years ago, offering parents a larger cushion when they file. For many, this translates into a lower tax bill and potentially a larger refund — especially for households that qualify for the refundable portion of the credit, which means even if their tax liability is zero, the IRS could still send a cash refund.
That’s the kind of parental reward that feels almost personal — like someone finally noticing all the effort you’ve put in.
Seniors and Those With Special Deductions
Another group with good reason to look forward to their refunds: seniors. A new deduction for those aged 65 and older, according to CNBC, provides an extra cushion of tax benefits that doesn’t apply at younger ages. It lowers taxable income, which can in turn lower the overall tax owed and raise the size of a refund. For many older Americans on fixed incomes, those extra dollars can feel like an intentional gesture of fiscal affection.
In addition, some workers who earn tips, overtime or similar income may also enjoy larger refunds thanks to new allowances that reduce taxable income tied to those earnings.
Who Might Not See a Huge Refund
Before you start creating a Pinterest board for “My 2026 Refund,” here’s a friendly reality check: not everyone will spiral into St. Patrick’s‑day‑green delight.
Lower‑income households, for example, may see more modest increases — or in some cases, no increase at all — depending on eligibility for certain credits and how the law’s income thresholds affect their overall tax liability. And those who owed taxes last year or had minimal withholding won’t have a big refund — because you only get a refund if you overpaid.
In short: a big refund doesn’t necessarily mean better tax planning — it can also just mean an overpayment during the year. If you’re consistently getting a very large refund, it might be worth adjusting your withholding so you have access to more of your money throughout the year instead of waiting for a lump check in the spring.
Timing Matters
This season, the IRS expects to accept returns starting Jan. 26 and has a filing deadline of April 15 to avoid penalties. Most refunds sent via direct deposit arrive within about three weeks of filing, assuming there are no issues with the return. If your return claims certain refundable credits — like the Earned Income Tax Credit or the Additional Child Tax Credit — federal law requires that portion of your refund be held until mid‑February to give the IRS time to verify the information. For many taxpayers, that could mean seeing your refund hit your account in early March if you file promptly and choose direct deposit.
Filing accuracy, timing and choice of delivery method — direct deposit vs. mailed check — all influence how quickly that reward lands.
Smarter Planning for the Future
Feeling like your refund is flirting with you? That’s understandable; extra money always feels nice. But financial planners often remind filers that a big refund isn’t always better — it can simply mean you gave the government an interest‑free loan all year.
If you prefer steady, higher paychecks throughout the year instead of a lump sum in April, you can adjust your withholding on your W‑4 with your employer. If you’re planning major expenses this year — like a wedding, a move, or a big vacation — optimizing your tax situation can help you enjoy your money when you need it rather than waiting for tax season.