It’s that time of year when winter is on the way, and in Michigan, that can mean lots of snow. So, what’s the Michigan winter weather forecast? It’s not to early to look at very early trends and see if we’ll have to plow this season.

Well, there are two differing forecasts from two very different outlets. Let’s begin with the Farmer’s Almanac. Their annual prediction for the upcoming winter 2023-24 season is for much of the U.S. to have a colder and wetter winter. That includes Michigan. Specifically, the Almanac says that Michigan will have a “cold” and “stormy” winter. “Our extended weather forecast, which is based on a mathematical and astronomical formula, calls for below-average temperatures and lots of snowstorms, sleet, ice, rain for much of the Great Lakes and Midwest areas of the country, as well as central and northern New England, especially in January and February. (Brrr…),” they write. Find the full study from the Farmer’s Almanac here.

Michigan Winter Weather Forecast

But, if you hate the snow and cold, all hope is not lost. A few weeks after the Farmer’s Almanac post, the Climate Prediction Center released their three-month outlook for January-February-March of 2024. That prediction is pretty much the opposite of the Farmer’s Almanac’s prediction, as it calls for not just warmer, but much warmer temperatures and drier conditions for the northern part of the U.S., including Michigan. What’s a bit odd is that the further north you go in the U.S., the warmer winter is expected to be, in comparison to that area’s average winter weather. Looking across the U.S., much of the country, especially in the Midwest and Northeast, will have warmer and drier conditions this winter, with the exception of parts of New Mexico and Arizona, which will be blow normal. What’s more, most of the U.S. has an equal chance or a colder or warmer winter, but still not colder than normal.

National Weather Trends

Looking at some national trends and averages, according to Noaa.gov, the average temperature across the contiguous U.S. in February 2023 was 36.5 degrees F. That’s 2.7 degrees above the 20th-century average, making last January-February-March the warmest third of the 129-year climate record. They also state that in 2023, “Virginia had its warmest February on record, while Georgia, Kentucky, Maryland, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and West Virginia all saw their second-warmest Februaries. Delaware, Florida and Tennessee ranked third warmest, with nine additional states experiencing a top-10 warmest February on record.” So, it appears that, on average, the temperature is going up across the U.S., as a whole.

So, will Michiganders have to shovel a lot this season? If you believe the Climate Prediction Center, the answer is “no.” But, if you lean towards the Farmer’s Almanac, that answer is “yes.” It’s worth noting that for last winter, the Farmer’s Almanac said to get ready to “shake, shiver, and shovel” in the Great Lakes region. They also said the region could get an “unreasonably cold, snowy experience,” largely in January. That turned out to be incorrect, as it was a warmer winter for the region. However, the Almanac did correctly predict an early December 2022 storm.