I always get a thrill when October rolls in. The air starts to whisper “sweater weather,” and I can’t resist imagining the perfect Halloween night, crisp, a little spooky, perhaps with a surprise shower or two. This year, I scrolled through the Farmers’ Almanac’s extended fall forecast, and wow, it’s a weather ride from one end of the country to the other.

Let’s hop in, weather broomstick in hand.

October’s Mood: Flirty, Stormy, and Sometimes Crisp

By mid-October, the Almanac says, fall really starts flirting with the country. In the Northeast and Great Lakes zones, early snows might pop up in high terrain, while further south things stay gentler, with pleasant days ideal for pumpkin picking and costume sort-outs. Stormy spells may bounce through mid-month, bringing rain and wind here and there, so don’t be complacent.

Now, fast-forward to Halloween weekend, specifically Oct. 28 through Oct. 31.

Zone by Zone Halloween Nights

Northeast & New England
States like New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and even D.C.
Forecast: “Fair skies, then showers.”

That means trick-or-treaters may start under clear skies, moonlight, maybe even stars, but later, clouds and scattered showers could gatecrash the party. I picture someone in a ghost sheet costume, carrying an umbrella in one hand and a plastic pumpkin bucket in the other.

Great Lakes, Ohio Valley & Midwest
States like Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Illinois, Wisconsin.
Forecast: “Fair, then showers (MI, OH area, and points east).”

Ah, this hits close to home (figuratively) for many. The evening might begin crisp and cooperative, perfect for exposing spiderweb decorations, but later, certain areas will see rain creep in. In Michigan and Ohio zones, showers are likely later in the window.

Southeast
Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Florida.
Forecast: “Fair skies.”

Now this is my kind of Halloween. Clear, mild, maybe a gentle breeze, ideal for outdoor plans, fire pits, ghost stories, or handing out candy on a front porch. No umbrella required (fingers crossed).

North Central
Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana.
Forecast: “Wet Rockies, Plains, then turning fair.”

In parts that border mountain and plains territory, trickiness looms. Early on, rain may dominate, especially near the Rockies or wetter stretches, but by the end of the forecast window, skies should turn more cooperative. If you’re in Kansas or Iowa, the later hours of Halloween might feel calmer.

South Central
Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico.
Forecast: “Wet, then clearing skies.”

Rain likely dominates earlier in the window, but there’s hope, clearing toward Halloween night. So if you’re in, say, Texas, you might dodge showers by the time the full “witching hour” hits.

Northwest
Washington, Oregon, Idaho.
Forecast: “Unsettled; showers WA, OR.”

Here’s where I imagine raincoats, soggy leaves, and maybe regrets about not picking a waterproof costume.

Southwest
California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona.
Forecast: “Unsettled, showery.”

Desert dwellers and mountain folks alike, expect occasional showers, unsettled weather. But compared to the Northwest, perhaps less frequent rain. Still, costumes that can handle a drizzle will be smart.

My Personal Forecast & Plans (From Me to You!)

Let me put on my weather-lover hat and imagine I’m your friendly local forecaster. Suppose you live somewhere in the Midwest. On Halloween night, we’ll probably start under fair or partly cloudy skies. If you’re in Michigan or Ohio, keep an umbrella or rain jacket nearby, there’s a good chance showers could arrive late in the evening. For kids going house to house, maybe schedule trick-or-treating earlier in the night, to avoid soggy footsteps toward the end.

If you’re down South in, say, Georgia or Alabama, I’m jealous, your night looks solid. Clear skies, mild weather. Perfect for elaborate costumes, ghost story gatherings, bonfires, and candy exchanges under the stars. Meanwhile, folks in the Great Plains or the Rockies should watch their weather app, in some spots, rain may ease off later, but earlier hours could see damp patches.

Out West and north, those regions are the wildcards. Be ready for showers, especially in the Northwest and parts of the Southwest. A trick or treat in Seattle or Portland might be tougher (umbrella + boots = a smart combo). In Arizona or New Mexico, unsettled skies may occasionally drop a sprinkle, but maybe you’ll get lucky with a break.

A Cute (and Slightly Dramatic) Story Twist

Picture me, your narrator, sitting at a small kitchen table in mid-October. I have an orange mug of steaming cider, a Halloween playlist on low, and a laptop open to the Farmers’ Almanac forecast. I trace my finger along the map, imagining zones, plotting where I might want to visit to see “ideal candy weather.” I half whisper to the cat, “Wouldn’t it be fun to drive cross country and chase the perfect Halloween sky?”

On October 30, I already start packing, rain boots, umbrella, a lightweight warm jacket, and, of course, my witch hat. On the 31st, I step outside right at dusk. In my region, skies are calm, crisp. I check my phone, the radar shows rain creeping in from the east. I know I’ve got a window. Maybe trick-or-treaters will pass just before the first drops.

I imagine meeting other costumed neighbors, a little ghost, a caped vampire, maybe a witch like me. We exchange “Happy Halloweens!” and compare jackets (hers is glow-in-the-dark). The world seems magical, even before rain starts. And by 8:30 p.m., just as I’m about to head indoors, I hear the first soft patter on leaves. I smile, thinking, weather’s playing its trick tonight too.

Final Thoughts & Tips From Me to You

• If your area is in the Northeast or Great Lakes zones, start early, and be ready for showers later in the evening.
• In the Southeast, the weather looks excellent for outdoor fun, enjoy every moment.
• In central and western zones, especially the plains and mountain fringes, expect some wetness earlier, clearing later.
• In the Northwest and parts of the Southwest, be cautious, unsettled, showery conditions may interfere.
• Wherever you are: layers, a compact umbrella, water-resistant costume bits, and boots or shoes you don’t mind getting damp, all good moves.

So that’s my Halloween weather story. Will the night be crisp and clear, or wet and wild? It depends on your zone. I hope you have a great Halloween, no matter the weather. For fall foliage tips, Smokey Mountains has some great information, too.